Right, it's business time in the Premiership season and for West Ham currently lying in 18th it's quite clearly going to be a relegation scrap for the final twelve games.
Most fans have believed that it was only a matter of time before Moyes' men put together a run of results to put any relegation worries to bed but, quite simply, that has not happened and despite a slight improvement in form, the results of teams around us has dragged us slowly deeper into the relegation mire.
Usually, we apply a 10 wins or 40 points as a target to ensure Premiership survival but this year it's the most compressed bottom half of the table ever with any of 9 teams still in the thick of it. At present, just 4 points separate Palace in 12th and Southampton at the bottom.
A current AI based computer reckons we will finish in 14th apot with a whopping 39 points, with relegation cut off at 35/6 points, this dooming Southampton, Bournemouth and Forest to the drop.
However, with our currwnt yaul at 24 pts from 26 games, we look on track to stutter home with 35 points - right on the cusp of relegation. With just 12 remaining games, it reckons we will grab 15 points - but looking at our fixtures that seems ambitious!
Our six remaining home games are tough - Southampton, Newcastle, Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd and Leeds. only two are in the relegation mix while the other 4 will be seeking points to aid their European charge. In reality, 7 to 8 points would be a fair haul, leaving us to look to away fixtures for the other 7-8 points.
Our away fixtures are mostly easier with Man City, Fulham, Leicester, Brentford, Palace and Bournemouth - 4 of these are in the relegation mix but we are second bottom in the away portion of league with a single win in 13 games! Again, we need to really up our results to get the necessary points.
There are additional considerations such as our relatively good goal difference compared with other sides down the lower end (-10). We also have a relatively full squad and can hopefully call on a sustained Zouma and Aguerd partnership for the first time, with options in midfield and three strikers who can score at this level. However, our
Europa Conference League distractions may prove a problem.
In short, we are in serious dooh-dah. Buckle up, this is going to get choppy as we try to chisel out the necessary results!